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Launching a better college football power index

November 8, 20262 min read

Today I'm launching a competitor to the other public college football ratings like ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+, the CFB Power Index. In backtesting across 7,336 out-of-sample games since 2017, I found my index is more predictive than every other public power index out there. It beats ESPN's FPI, SP+, Pregame Elo, and FEI across the board on spread error (12.36 vs 12.54 FPI and 13.41 SP+ MAE), win probability log loss (0.4673 vs 0.4728 FPI and 0.5017 SP+), Brier score (0.1551), early-season Weeks 1–4 error (12.53 vs 14.25 SP+ MAE), and picking against the spread (52.1% overall, and 53.1% when it disagrees with the line by at least 3 points).

I'm able to beat them because I pull in more data and handle the messy parts of college football a bit more carefully. Before the season starts, the model builds priors for every position group from recruiting, returning production, transfer portal movement, and coaching track records across 144,000+ players. Once games start, it rates every team in points above an average FBS team (0.0) from 3.3 million plays across 19,008 games, filters out fourth-quarter garbage time and turnover luck, and automatically adjusts when a starting quarterback gets hurt or benched. Every team's rating splits cleanly into Offense + Defense + Special Teams (Pass, Rush, Finishing, and Havoc) and into Preseason Prior + In-Season Lift + QB Adjustment.

Lower is better (points)

Mean absolute spread error in points across 7,336 out-of-sample games (2017–2025)

Vegas Closing LineCFB Index (Ours)Public Rating Systems
10.511.712.814.012.20 ptsVegas LineGame-time odds12.36 ptsCFB Index#1 public index12.54 ptsESPN FPI12.89 ptsFPI Weekly13.41 ptsSP+13.49 ptsElo13.60 ptsFEI

I also benchmarked it against the 55+ public computer models and Vegas lines tracked on The Prediction Tracker since 2017. It beats every non-line index on every metric (74.1% straight-up accuracy, 51.8% ATS, 12.36 MAE, and 242.8 MSE vs Sagarin, Massey, Dokter Entropy, FPI, and the rest of the field), and even beats the Vegas opening line across the board (12.36 vs 12.41 MAE) and the closing line on straight-up winners (74.1% vs 72.8%). On spread error and log loss, it is only narrowly beaten by the game-time closing line (12.36 vs 12.20 MAE, and basically tied at 0.4673 vs 0.4666 in log loss), which is able to price in practice-week injury reports, late opt-outs, weather, and sharp money right up until kickoff.

The rankings, upcoming game projections, matchup simulator, and 12-team Playoff bracket are updated weekly on /cfb. Here is the ranking for this week:

Team
1
GeorgiaSEC
8‑1+30.2+15.5+14.2+0.5+22.9+7.3+6.410.7‑1.399.6%37.5%
2
Notre DameInd
8‑1+27.7+14.3+14.0−0.5+25.4+2.3+4.410.9‑1.199.8%24.7%
3
Ohio StateB1G
6‑3+25.7+13.4+13.4−1.1+26.9−0.4+8.08.7‑3.338.0%4.2%
4
AlabamaSEC
7‑2+25.2+13.2+11.4+0.7+17.5+7.8+9.09.8‑2.287.7%8.6%
5
TexasSEC
7‑2+22.9+9.6+14.9−1.6+21.8+1.1+12.69.1‑2.955.0%3.3%
6
MiamiACC
8‑1+22.3+14.9+8.6−1.2+16.9+5.4+2.510.8‑1.299.0%7.8%
7
OregonB1G
6‑3+22.2+10.2+11.8+0.2+25.3−3.1+7.68.7‑3.319.3%0.7%
8
LSUSEC
6‑3+20.9+10.5+12.0−1.5+12.8+8.1+8.47.9‑4.12.5%—
9
BYUB12
7‑2+19.6+7.7+10.5+1.4+14.2+5.5+5.69.5‑2.555.3%1.3%
10
TennesseeSEC
7‑2+19.3+8.1+9.9+1.3+15.6+3.7+7.68.8‑3.222.8%0.4%
11
IndianaB1G
8‑1+19.2+6.6+13.1−0.5+18.9+3.3+2.710.2‑1.879.5%2.4%
12
UtahB12
9‑0+18.8+11.7+7.7−0.6+13.9+4.9+4.311.2‑0.898.9%4.5%
13
Ole MissSEC
6‑3+18.4+11.9+6.5+0.0+17.9+0.5+8.78.4‑3.60.8%—
14
IowaB1G
7‑2+18.0+4.9+11.5+1.5+11.8+6.2+4.19.3‑2.741.5%0.7%
15
USCB1G
7‑2+17.5+10.7+5.1+1.7+17.6−0.1+7.68.7‑3.314.3%0.1%
16
UCLAB1G
9‑0+17.4+6.4+9.3+1.7+5.2+12.2+4.911.0‑1.095.4%2.6%
17
Texas TechB12
8‑1+17.1+10.0+5.9+1.2+17.5−2.9+1.610.0‑2.067.0%0.5%
18
Wake ForestACC
8‑1+16.8+7.2+8.0+1.5+4.6+13.6+0.310.2‑1.867.5%0.9%
19
LouisvilleACC
6‑3+16.3+11.3+5.2−0.3+9.5+6.9+4.48.0‑4.01.2%—
20
OklahomaSEC
5‑4+15.8+3.9+11.4+0.5+17.8−2.1+11.16.5‑5.5——
21
MissouriSEC
6‑3+15.5+6.2+9.0+0.3+13.7+1.8+7.27.4‑4.6——
22
South CarolinaSEC
6‑3+15.5+9.4+6.5−0.3+14.0+1.5+8.07.6‑4.40.1%—
23
Texas A&MSEC
4‑5+14.9+4.4+8.7+1.8+21.3−6.4+8.75.2‑6.8——
24
ArizonaB12
7‑2+14.7+7.9+6.4+0.4+11.1+3.6+2.39.1‑2.914.8%—
25
FloridaSEC
5‑4+13.6+7.2+5.9+0.5+13.9−0.1+10.06.8‑5.2——
26
HoustonB12
7‑2+13.5+6.9+5.8+0.9+8.2+5.3+2.49.2‑2.814.4%—
27
BaylorB12
6‑3+13.5+6.1+5.6+1.7+8.1+5.4+4.07.1‑4.90.9%—
28
SMUACC
7‑2+12.3+8.8+5.0−1.4+11.4+1.0+1.78.4‑3.63.6%—
29
NebraskaB1G
5‑4+11.7+5.0+6.8−0.2+7.9+3.7+5.26.3‑5.7——
30
DukeACC
7‑2+11.2+4.9+4.9+1.4+3.2+7.9+2.38.1‑3.91.0%—
31
KentuckySEC
7‑2+11.1+6.1+5.3−0.3+6.1+4.9+11.18.2‑3.84.6%—
32
WisconsinB1G
6‑3+10.8+1.4+8.9+0.5+5.5+5.3+4.38.0‑4.00.1%—
33
AuburnSEC
5‑4+10.7+3.6+6.2+0.9+10.5+0.2+9.56.7‑5.3——
34
PittsburghACC
6‑3+10.3+3.4+5.4+1.4+6.2+4.1+1.37.7‑4.3——
35
WashingtonB1G
5‑4+10.2+4.0+4.8+1.3+15.1−5.0+5.96.0‑6.0——
36
IllinoisB1G
6‑3+9.5+6.3+3.3−0.0+8.9+0.6+7.87.1‑4.90.2%—
37
MichiganB1G
5‑4+9.2+1.7+9.3−1.9+16.1−6.8+8.55.5‑6.5——
38
Penn StateB1G
5‑4+9.2+4.4+6.7−2.0+11.3−2.1+1.67.2‑4.8——
39
VanderbiltSEC
4‑5+9.1+3.7+2.8+2.6+13.9−4.8+8.14.7‑7.3——
40
Oklahoma StateB12
6‑3+8.9+9.2+0.5−0.8−3.9+12.8+3.97.5‑4.50.4%—
41
North CarolinaACC
5‑4+8.5+3.5+4.2+0.9+0.1+8.4+6.36.8‑5.2——
42
ClemsonACC
6‑3+8.2−0.1+7.1+1.2+10.7−2.5+3.77.5‑4.5——
43
TCUB12
4‑5+8.0+1.0+8.1−1.1+8.8−0.8+4.45.2‑6.8——
44
Florida StateACC
4‑5+7.7+7.0+1.1−0.5+8.6−0.9+5.25.5‑6.5——
45
UCFB12
5‑4+7.4+2.3+3.2+1.8+3.8+3.4+3.16.9‑5.1——
46
MinnesotaB1G
5‑4+6.3−0.6+4.2+2.7+6.7−0.4+4.26.2‑5.8——
47
NorthwesternB1G
6‑3+6.2+4.3+4.4−2.5+6.8+1.6+5.86.9‑5.1——
48
KansasB12
3‑6+6.2+4.6+2.6−1.0+5.8+0.4+4.24.2‑7.8——
49
Iowa StateB12
4‑5+5.5+3.1+1.3+1.1+5.5+0.0+4.65.6‑6.4——
50
Arizona StateB12
5‑4+5.2+3.5+3.1−1.5+7.4−3.1+4.36.0‑6.0——
51
CincinnatiB12
5‑4+5.0+6.0−1.0−0.1+5.7−0.7+4.36.2‑5.8——
52
North TexasAAC
7‑2+4.8+9.0−5.1+0.8−0.7+5.5−7.69.3‑2.79.6%—
53
Texas StateP12
5‑4+4.5+6.1−1.9+0.3−1.0+5.5−3.86.7‑4.3——
54
Mississippi StateSEC
4‑5+4.5+2.7+3.2−1.5+7.4+0.7+9.05.5‑6.5——
55
James MadisonSBC
8‑2+4.2+2.4−0.1+1.9−2.5+6.6−12.39.6‑2.45.1%—
56
Michigan StateB1G
3‑6+4.0−0.8+3.0+1.8+2.9+1.2+8.04.1‑7.9——
57
Virginia TechACC
6‑3+3.3+3.9+0.7−1.4+4.0−0.7+0.27.5‑4.5——
58
PurdueB1G
3‑6+3.2+3.0−2.6+2.9+2.2+1.0+10.13.6‑8.4——
59
MarylandB1G
3‑6+3.2+1.7+1.7−0.2+5.7−2.5+6.33.8‑8.2——
60
Boise StateP12
8‑1+2.8+5.1−0.8−1.4+0.9+2.6−3.59.5‑1.543.6%—
61
ArkansasSEC
3‑6+2.3+1.8+1.3−0.8+7.9−5.6+11.63.4‑8.6——
62
SyracuseACC
4‑5+2.0+0.7+0.5+0.9−2.5+4.5+4.15.0‑7.0——
63
Kansas StateB12
4‑5+2.0+1.2+1.4−0.6+10.0−7.0+1.44.8‑7.2——
64
VirginiaACC
4‑5+1.9−1.2+3.9−0.8+5.0−3.1−0.05.6‑6.4——
65
New MexicoMWC
8‑1+1.4−1.3+3.0−0.3−4.3+5.7−12.310.4‑1.632.7%—
66
West VirginiaB12
5‑4+1.3+5.4−4.9+0.8+1.7−0.4+4.25.7‑6.3——
67
ColoradoB12
3‑6+1.0−0.7+3.5−1.8+2.0−1.1+5.93.9‑8.1——
68
NC StateACC
4‑5+0.9+2.5−0.7−0.9+9.0−8.1+1.45.0‑7.0——
69
Georgia TechACC
2‑7−0.5+1.2−2.2+0.4+6.2−6.7+6.72.3‑9.7——
70
MemphisAAC
7‑2−1.1+3.2−3.3−0.9−3.7+2.6−10.48.9‑3.10.7%—
71
LibertyCUSA
8‑1−1.2−1.2+0.1−0.2−12.2+11.0−15.310.6‑1.419.8%—
72
UTSAAAC
7‑2−1.3+0.6−2.8+0.9−0.1−1.2−5.38.7‑3.31.0%—
73
Oregon StateP12
5‑4−1.4+1.5−2.2−0.7−7.5+6.0−4.26.0‑5.0——
74
Boston CollegeACC
4‑5−1.4−2.1+1.7−1.0−1.5+0.0+6.04.5‑7.5——
75
South FloridaAAC
6‑3−2.7−2.8−0.6+0.7+1.8−6.1−12.47.7‑4.3——
76
RutgersB1G
2‑7−2.9+2.0−5.7+0.8+2.9−5.8+2.32.7‑9.3——
77
North Dakota StateMWC
7‑2−3.6−5.9+1.2+1.1−10.0+6.4−14.49.3‑2.70.9%—
78
Jacksonville StateCUSA
7‑2−3.8−1.8−3.2+1.2−10.1+6.3−14.79.4‑2.60.7%—
79
Georgia SouthernSBC
5‑4−3.9−1.5−2.2−0.2−11.5+7.6−7.66.9‑5.1——
80
UConnInd
4‑5−3.9−0.2−4.5+0.7−9.6+5.6−8.95.8‑6.2——
81
Utah StateP12
4‑5−4.3−6.8+2.9−0.4−4.6+0.8−2.74.8‑6.2——
82
ToledoMAC
7‑2−4.3−0.4−2.2−1.7−2.4−1.9−16.09.4‑2.60.4%—
83
Fresno StateP12
5‑4−4.6−3.0−0.7−0.9−4.7+0.0−5.76.0‑5.0——
84
StanfordACC
4‑5−4.9−1.9−3.4+0.4−1.6−3.3+5.64.8‑7.2——
85
Louisiana TechSBC
7‑2−5.1−2.6−0.1−2.3−9.4+4.3−9.49.0‑3.00.4%—
86
East CarolinaAAC
5‑4−5.1−4.3−0.8−0.0−2.4−2.7−9.87.1‑4.9——
87
Western MichiganMAC
6‑3−5.6−5.7−1.5+1.6−6.2+0.6−13.08.4‑3.6——
88
LouisianaSBC
6‑3−5.6−3.9−2.4+0.7−10.4+4.8−12.08.2‑3.8——
89
CaliforniaACC
3‑6−5.7−2.4−2.5−0.8+3.2−8.9+1.33.9‑8.1——
90
TulsaAAC
5‑4−5.9−2.8−2.9−0.2−9.0+3.1−8.96.8‑5.2——
91
San Diego StateP12
4‑5−6.1−5.3−2.6+1.7−0.4−5.8−3.54.7‑6.3——
92
TulaneAAC
4‑5−6.4−6.3−3.4+3.3−2.4−4.0−5.65.3‑6.7——
93
Florida AtlanticAAC
6‑3−6.5+0.3−10.3+3.6−7.1+0.7−9.37.2‑4.8——
94
UNLVMWC
5‑4−6.5−3.2−4.7+1.3−3.1−3.5−8.96.5‑5.5——
95
OhioMAC
7‑2−7.2−4.5−3.8+1.1−8.0+0.8−14.98.8‑3.2——
96
NavyAAC
3‑6−7.3−1.0−4.4−2.0−7.7+0.3−5.94.8‑7.2——
97
Washington StateP12
1‑8−8.0−5.9−1.7−0.4+0.7−9.7−3.51.9‑9.1——
98
Miami (OH)MAC
5‑4−9.1−4.8−4.7+0.4−10.2+1.1−12.26.6‑5.4——
99
Air ForceMWC
7‑2−9.7−4.4−5.6+0.3−13.1+3.5−13.08.6‑3.4——
100
UABAAC
5‑4−9.7−7.7−3.0+1.1−8.6−1.0−7.75.9‑6.1——
101
TempleAAC
2‑7−10.6−5.1−6.0+0.4−8.8−1.3−8.23.4‑8.6——
102
Georgia StateSBC
5‑4−10.6−3.2−7.4−0.1−13.9+4.6−10.46.4‑5.6——
103
ArmyAAC
5‑4−11.0−3.9−5.7−1.4−7.2−3.8−8.66.3‑5.7——
104
South AlabamaSBC
4‑5−11.2−2.6−9.4+0.8−8.9−2.3−10.75.7‑6.3——
105
San José StateMWC
5‑5−11.2−6.9−4.3−0.0−9.8−2.6−10.26.2‑6.8——
106
App StateSBC
5‑4−11.3−6.4−4.6−0.4−13.0+1.6−11.46.8‑5.2——
107
TroySBC
4‑5−11.4−8.0−4.4+0.9−11.8+0.0−9.95.2‑6.8——
108
Kennesaw StateCUSA
3‑6−11.8−7.0−5.8+1.1−14.1+2.3−11.54.9‑7.1——
109
WyomingMWC
6‑3−11.9−7.9−3.3−0.7−11.4−0.5−12.07.3‑4.7——
110
Old DominionSBC
3‑7−12.0−10.1−1.0−0.9−3.0−9.0−9.73.8‑8.2——
111
Coastal CarolinaSBC
3‑6−12.6−7.3−6.2+0.9−14.5+1.9−9.63.9‑8.1——
112
Arkansas StateSBC
4‑5−12.6−6.1−6.5−0.0−13.0+0.4−10.75.2‑6.8——
113
NevadaMWC
3‑6−12.9−8.9−2.7−1.2−12.1−0.8−9.84.5‑7.5——
114
Hawai'iMWC
3‑6−13.1−7.4−5.2−0.5−6.9−6.3−11.34.6‑7.4——
115
Florida InternationalCUSA
4‑5−14.3−9.7−3.3−1.4−12.9−1.4−13.65.6‑6.4——
116
Southern MissSBC
3‑6−14.4−3.7−8.5−2.2−9.7−7.4−10.04.0‑8.0——
117
DelawareCUSA
4‑5−14.4−4.2−8.4−1.8−12.7−1.7−10.85.4‑6.6——
118
RiceAAC
1‑8−14.7−6.9−5.7−2.1−13.5−1.8−4.92.1‑9.9——
119
Western KentuckyCUSA
3‑6−14.7−5.9−8.7−0.2−7.8−7.0−8.73.9‑8.1——
120
Colorado StateP12
3‑6−14.9−0.4−15.4+0.9−10.5−4.4−3.63.4‑7.6——
121
Central MichiganMAC
4‑5−14.9−9.8−4.0−1.1−11.3−3.5−12.55.9‑6.1——
122
Middle TennesseeCUSA
5‑4−15.6−6.9−10.0+1.3−16.4+0.8−12.76.4‑5.6——
123
MarshallSBC
5‑4−15.6−5.7−8.2−1.7−6.6−9.0−10.86.5‑5.5——
124
BuffaloMAC
6‑3−15.8−9.9−7.6+1.7−15.1−0.8−15.17.7‑4.3——
125
Missouri StateCUSA
3‑6−16.8−7.0−9.1−0.6−13.7−3.1−10.63.9‑8.1——
126
New Mexico StateCUSA
3‑6−18.7−10.1−6.8−1.8−19.5+0.8−12.14.2‑7.8——
127
Eastern MichiganMAC
4‑6−19.8−9.2−9.6−1.0−12.1−8.9−13.04.7‑7.3——
128
Ball StateMAC
3‑6−20.0−8.7−11.4+0.1−19.3−0.7−10.64.0‑8.0——
129
MassachusettsMAC
5‑4−20.2−10.5−7.6−2.1−24.8+4.6−17.16.2‑5.8——
130
Bowling GreenMAC
2‑7−20.6−12.1−8.6+0.2−15.5−5.1−11.13.2‑8.8——
131
Kent StateMAC
3‑6−21.6−11.5−8.5−1.6−14.5−7.1−10.04.0‑8.0——
132
Northern IllinoisMWC
0‑9−21.9−9.5−10.4−1.9−11.7−10.1−7.21.0‑11.0——
133
AkronMAC
1‑8−21.9−10.9−11.5+0.4−13.8−8.1−11.31.9‑10.1——
134
UL MonroeSBC
2‑7−22.1−11.0−9.3−1.8−15.3−6.8−10.52.7‑9.3——
135
UTEPMWC
1‑8−22.5−11.3−10.6−0.6−15.2−7.3−8.71.8‑10.2——
136
Sam HoustonCUSA
1‑8−22.6−12.8−7.7−2.1−18.2−4.4−11.01.8‑10.2——
137
CharlotteAAC
1‑8−22.6−10.7−10.1−1.8−15.5−7.1−5.91.3‑10.7——
138
Sacramento StateMAC
2‑8−27.9−16.2−11.5−0.2−17.5−10.3−15.82.2‑9.8——