North Carolina Tar Heels
Ratings & Unit Splits
Starting QB:
| Unit / Component | Detail | Rating | FBS Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Power | Offense + Defense + Special Teams | +8.5 | #41 |
| Offense | Passing + Rushing + Finishing | +3.5 | #47 |
| Passing Offense | Billy Edwards Jr. (+0.3 VOR) | +1.1 | #60 |
| Rushing Offense | Line yards & rushing EPA | −0.1 | #69 |
| Drive Finishing | Points per red-zone trip | +2.5 | #21 |
| Defense | Pass Def + Rush Def + Havoc | +4.2 | #42 |
| Pass Defense | Points prevented vs pass | +2.5 | #31 |
| Rush Defense | Points prevented vs rush | +1.0 | #49 |
| Defensive Havoc | Sacks, TFL & turnovers | +0.7 | #40 |
| Special Teams | Net kicking & return efficiency | +0.9 | #40 |
| Preseason Prior | Talent, returning PPA, portal & coach | +0.1 | #67 |
| In-Season Lift | Performance vs preseason expectation | +8.4 | #5 |
| Strength of Schedule | Full-season opponent difficulty | +6.3 | #26 |
2026 Schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Result / Spread | Score | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsTCU | W (+5) | 15‑10 | Final |
| 2 | vsEast Tennessee State | W (+32) | 35‑3 | Final |
| 3 | L (−8) | 20‑28 | Final | |
| 5 | L (−11) | 26‑37 | Final | |
| 6 | W (+4) | 21‑17 | Final | |
| 7 | @Duke | W (+4) | 24‑20 | Final |
| 8 | vsSyracuse | L (−1) | 30‑31 | Final |
| 9 | L (−3) | 35‑38 | Final | |
| 10 | W (+17) | 38‑21 | Final | |
| 11 | LOU -5.5 | 27.2‑32.7 | 35.9% | |
| 12 | UNC -4.3 | 26.5‑22.2 | 61.1% | |
| 13 | vsNC State | UNC -9.9 | 33.4‑23.5 | 74.0% |
Snapshot History (2025–2026)
| Snapshot | Rank | Record | Power | Off | Def | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Preseason | #65 | 0‑0 | +1.3 | +1.4 | −0.1 | +1.3 |
| 2025 Postseason | #83 | 4‑8 | −4.3 | −4.0 | +0.5 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Preseason | #67 | 0‑0 | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.8 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Week 11 | #41 | 5‑4 | +8.5 | +3.5 | +4.2 | +0.1 |